Median ATAR score data is longer helpful.
The Tertiary Institutions Service Centre recently made the decision to neither compile nor publish schools’ median ATAR scores.
This decision resulted in media outlets being unable to publish median ATAR league tables where schools are ranked solely on median ATAR performance.
It came under criticism from some, however it was a sound move based upon mathematically justifiable reasoning.
Median ATAR rankings resulted in comparisons and unfair expectations placed on schools and students, all of which contributed to a high-pressure and stressful learning environment.
Schools ranking high on these tables were considered to have performed well and celebrated their successes within the media and school community.
On the other hand, schools with low rankings were perceived to have performed poorly, significantly impacting a school’s reputation and influencing where parents chose to send their children.
But beyond creating a highly pressurized schooling system, the numbers don’t really stack up in placing such emphasis on median ATAR scores.
Crunching the numbers
The median is the middle value for a series of numbers, when scores are ordered from least to greatest.
It can be useful over a mean average because it may not be affected by extreme values or outliers.
However, comparing median scores from year-to-year requires a stable population size with a similar spread of scores each year.
This has not occurred in WA.
Over time WA’s ATAR population has declined: In 2016 we had 13,540 students doing ATAR, yet in 2022 the cohort comprised just 9643 students an almost 20 per cent drop.
WA’s participation rate also dropped to 31 per cent, whereas most other Australian states are above 50 per cent.
What’s going on here?
One reason for WA’s low participation rate relates to publishing median ATAR league tables.
There is no doubt schools and teachers want the best for their students, however, to boost their reputation many secondary schools included a goal to increase their school’s median ATAR score in their strategic business plans.
One strategy to achieve this goal is to remove students with lower scores from an ATAR pathway.
At schools with a small ATAR cohort, this can significantly improve a median ATAR score – while also contributing to the decline in ATAR population.
There is also the impact this has on students’ futures.
Consider a Year-11 student with scoring in the 50s for their respective subjects and with a predicted ATAR of score of 66.
They will have performed well on 50 per cent of the content, but nevertheless they are often counselled out of an ATAR pathway, impacting their university aspirations.
But when schools keep Year 11 students in ATAR pathways with a predicted score of 66, it reinforces their belief in themselves to aspire to go to university.
Often, students improve through Year 12 and can easily reach an ATAR of 70, the average university entry score for most courses in WA.
If students can enter university with an ATAR of 70, why do schools set a goal to reach a median above 70?
One explanation is a published median ATAR of 70 means they are ranked lower on the published league tables, and the school’s reputation is at risk.
Why it matters
Unfortunately, when students do not participate in ATAR their career opportunities are delayed.
If students achieve a near-miss ATAR between 60-69.5, they can participate in pre-semester, accelerated university preparation programs to start their courses with their peers.
Otherwise, non-ATAR students who want a professional career are required to enrol in university preparation programs.
Although the cost is minimal, the time to complete these programs extends the length of their tertiary study.
For students from disadvantaged backgrounds, this can be financially crippling as it results in a longer time to complete a degree and delays entry into the workforce.
Notably, students with an ATAR score have increased opportunities for social mobility and employment opportunities.
Although ATAR in Year 12 may create anxiety, students can become resilient with peer and school support.
Research shows ATAR participation results in better outcomes during university.
Undoubtedly, the declining pipeline from school to university can impact the future workforce and the overall competitiveness and innovation required for our social and economic development.
A welcome focus in the next round of strategic planning for secondary schools should be to dismiss the median ATAR as a valid indicator of school performance and increase the participation of students in ATAR courses.
Dr Lynette Vernon is Vice-Chancellor’s Research Fellow at Edith Cowan University’s School of Education.
This article originally appeared in The West Australian.
