This research investigates whether a quantitative approach to physical security reduces the incidence of theft and vandalism at critical electrical infrastructure sites across Western Australia. Physical security at these sites has historically relied on qualitative, judgement-based methods that produce a significant gap between perceived and actual security effectiveness creating security theatre.
The study applies a pre-test/post-test design across a selection of sites, using Garcia's probability of interruption framework to assess each site's protection system before and after targeted countermeasure deployment. Incident data will be subjected to comparative statistical analysis, supported by semi-structured interviews examining whether quantitative modelling improves organisational decision-making around risk acceptance and resource allocation.
The expected outcome is empirical evidence that a quantitative, systems-based approach produces measurable improvements in security outcomes, and a practical framework that critical infrastructure operators across Australia can adopt and apply at scale.